I’m running out of metaphors to describe 2020. It needs a straightjacket and a horse tranquilizer. How can this not challenge liberals’ faith in the inevitable progress of humanity? To a conservative, civilization is the crust on a volcano. We’re always one calamity away from “Lord of the Flies.” What I see is a whole nation at each other’s throats. WHERE’S YOUR CIVILIZATION NOW, HUH??
The rhetoric has become dangerous. Now, recklessness is
Trump’s bread and butter, but Nancy Pelosi has called him an “enemy of the
state” and Republicans “domestic enemies.” Liberal sociologist Jonathan Haidt,
who is dedicated to fostering mutual understanding of the political tribes, admits
these times are different, and the only way out of it is “love,” a wholesale cultural
commitment to a different ethic. For a hopeful liberal, who likely believes in
that progression of history nonsense, it is a stunning and pessimistic concession.
Predictions are always wrong, but since opining is a
stronger compulsion to Omnipotentblog than even that thing I do with my
toenails, I continue. First, the bad news. A Yougov study found 70% of Millennials—“The
Gratingest Generation” as George Will calls them—would
vote
for Socialism given the chance. Only 50% approve of Capitalism. 36% approve of…(sigh)
Communism. 22% believe “society would be better if all private property was
abolished. (Wait. 14%…huh? Yeah, I know.) 64% of Generation Z has a favorable
opinion of Socialism. Both Millennials and Gen Z reported that Communism was
presented more favorably in school than previous generations. One
recent study found 64% of undergraduate college students believe recent
rioting and looting was justified. 52% favor slavery reparations, and 51% said America
is “inextricably linked to white supremacy.” 72% of conservative students censor
themselves. At the University of Chicago, ranked highest in freedom of
speech, one student wrote, “I vote because Corona virus won’t destroy America,
but Socialism will.” For her thoughtcrime, she was widely denounced by her
peers, threatened with violence, and told she didn’t belong at the university.
Columnist Steve
Rowland cites Stanford historian Niall Ferguson claiming America’s
“doomsday clock” is at “2 minutes to Fort Sumter.” Rowland cited polls showing
1/3 think civil war could break out within the next 5 years and 7 out of 10
believe we are 2/3 of the way to civil war.
A Quillette.com
study from June set out to explore the left’s desire to deculturate
America. The study intentionally probed the outer limits of radical thought.
The results were disturbing. 70% of Liberals and 79% of Very Liberals want
major changes to the constitution. 44% and 58% want Mt. Rushmore destroyed.
Large numbers want racial quotas in museums, history books, street names, and
for national parks to revert totally back to nature. 17% of Very Liberals want
the official language changed. (If it’s Cockney, I’m in.)
In 2017, national security expert, Keith Mines, noted
conditions are similar to what he saw in other countries. He
felt the U.S. had a 60% chance of civil war over the next 10 years. “It’s just
like 1859; everyone is mad about something and everyone has a gun.” He stated other experts’ predictions
ranged from 5% to 95%. The consensus was 35%. And that was five months
before Charlottesville.
A recent
survey showed a 95% and 139%, respectively, increase in gun
and ammo sales, shattering previous records.
After the tumult of the
60’s and 70’s, sociologist and historian, Robert Nisbet, offered ten conditions
of revolution. An argument could be made that all of them apply to 2020.
·
Recent dramatic changes in the economic or
societal order.
·
Breakdown in respect for and by authority.
·
Recent increase in societal wealth.
(People getting a taste of what could be.)
·
Recent liberalization, allowing those
recently “freed” to sense what is possible to gain.
·
Intense politicization/polarization.
·
Intellectual elites taking advantage of
politicization to increase own status.
·
Disconnected or random catalyst that
brings social temperatures to a boil. (COVID???)
·
Crusaders coalesce under a clear moral
banner to attack societal norms (SYSTEMIC RACISM!!!).
·
Presentation of an idyllic, utopian vision
as alternative to the current corruption.
·
An existing guilt amongst members of the
ruling class (WHITE PRIVILEGE???).
Democrats
recently war-gamed
scenarios for a contested election. The exercise ended with California, Oregon
and Washington seceding and the U.S. military having to step in to remove
Trump. Hillary Clinton has suggested Biden should concede the election “under
no circumstance.” And Trump has notably refused to commit to a peaceful
transition. He frequently predicts massive fraud and chaos due to millions of
ballots sent out unsolicited. The Democrats accused Trump of sabotaging the
Postal Service to sow election chaos.
Afraid
yet? Is there any hope at all? Eh, some. The
general trend in America is actually away from Socialism. The same Yougov study
above found an increase of 47% to 53% of Americans unlikely to vote for
Socialism from 2018 to 2019. 56% of Americans define Socialism much more
positively than it is, suggesting the good branding of Socialism is really an
illusion. 58% view concerns about
Communism as just as or more relevant than during the Cold War. There is also a
trend away from Marxism amongst the younger generations. 8% fewer Gen Z than
Millennials prefer Communism. Their approval of Socialism also decreased by 8%
from 2018 to 2019 versus a mere 1% decrease by Millennials.
It
should be clear by now that race isn’t the real issue here, but what do polls
say about defunding the police? Despite actual decreases in budgets in
Minneapolis, Seattle, Portland, and Los Angeles, most Americans are against it.
While one study showed 57% of blacks are in favor of defunding the police,
another showed 81% want either the same amount or more police presence in their
neighborhoods, including 79% who had recent interaction with police.
It
is accepted dogma that the nation is hopelessly polarized. But maybe it’s not
as bad as it seems. Two organizations presented data suggesting the
perception is much worse than the reality. The higher the consumption of
news—which is mostly, “Can you believe ____ said ____??”—, the bigger the
perception gap.
So
what are Omnipotentblog’s odds of civil war? Well, on Tuesdays and Thursdays, 70%.
Wednesdays and Thursdays, 30%. Other days, I just suck my thumb. I do, however,
put odds of post-election civil unrest at precisely 99.64%. Will it be massive?
Will fat, middle-aged bloggers and Republican suburbanites be sucked into hastily-formed
militias to take on left wing mobs? De Toquesville argued that revolutions are
inherently unlikely in democracies; Too many have too much to lose. In “Fractured
Republic”, Yuval Levin argued that just as social conservatives overplayed
their hand years ago, so too will the left. Since fairness is deeply ingrained
in the American character, the exhausted majority will rebel against radicalism.
Are we still a reasonable and fair people? Lord, I hope so. My money is on
this: Regardless of who wins the election, leftists will press on. Democrat-run
cities that defenestrated the police will devolve into the cesspools of crime
they were in the 70’s and 80’s. Large numbers of Americans will continue to be
indoctrinated through the explicitly Marxist and pseudo-religious tenants of
Critical Race Theory. Its adherents will continue to agitate. But because class
hatred is not in America’s DNA, and because 180 years after DeToquesville,
history continues to prove him a genius for the ages, they will not get what they
want: the overthrow of Capitalism. It will leave them embittered by failure, enraged
at the lack of progress, and blaming…well, everyone. They will not fall to
their knees and repent; Leftists never do. They will simply wonder why their
children and the rest of America reject their nonsense. They will be as miserable
and lost as ever. Like now.
Ah,
destiny.
