Should We Bomb China?

3/15/12

Places I would like to bomb (in no particular order)

1. Iran
2. Russia
3. North Korea
4. North Sudan
5. Syria
6. Venezuela
7. Gaza Strip
8. Pakistan (“Bin Laden was our neighbor?? Whaaaaat???”)
9. France
10. Greece
11. France again.
12. Sacramento (for obvious reasons)
13. North Dakota (South Dakota should stop messing around and just take their oil)
14. Canada (Too cold. And…who would miss it?)
15. Denmark (Happiest people in the world? Screw ‘em)
16. Sweden (Too many good looking people in one place)

Should China be on the list? Liberals should support this because it would also take out their most hated enemy: Walmart. China bashing is popular. Obama is talking tough about “suing” China for holding back on rare earth minerals. Romney has all but promised a trade war if elected. And why not? They send us poison milk, poison dog food and poison drywall. They pirate our movies, steal our technology, deflate their currency to make exports cheap, persecute Christians and other religions, imprison dissenters, force abortions, and harvest the organs of prisoners. They veto nearly every sane attempt by the U.N. to stop evil in the world. And now they are building up their military like never before. Also, they eat rats and that’s just gross.

The Republican presidential candidates talk tough about China because getting tough is the Republican answer to everything. Iran? Yeah, kick its butt! Low test scores? Yeah, kick its butt! Exactly. It doesn’t always make sense. Conservatives applaud Nixon’s détente with China, and yet, today’s China is not half as evil as the Maoist regime of 1972. The tough talk that is ashamedly necessary during political campaigns always yields to the same caution from Democrats and Republicans alike. So why all the current bloviating? Well, their economy will, in fact, surpass ours, probably by 2020. Is their ascendancy signaling our own decline? If so, what do we do about it?  (Sigh) It’s complicated.

China’s military budget has exploded in the last few years. They’ve had the bomb since 1967 but spending on conventional forces is up 11.2% this year after 12.7% last year. Having moved on from the disastrous rickshaw-with-mounted-scattergun era, they are now building carriers, developing stealth fighters and nuclear submarines. They are asserting naval authority in a big way. China consistently states this is only a reaction to Obama’s new emphasis on AsiaPac and the subsequent muscle added to the region. However, the growing Chinese arsenal makes India and other neighbors like Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines, which have maritime disputes with China, a bit nervous.

Chinese imperialism seems unlikely, however. Unlike Japan, it’s just not in their history or culture. Deeply concerned about harmony and unity, (see Taiwan obsession) they have always been somewhat isolationist. Other powers could not resist the urge to expand. China has. It is true that Mao had designs on the world; He once remarked that if half the world had to die for the glory of socialism that would be acceptable. Nice. But Mao is an anomaly.

Much more likely than actual war is a trade war. Some responsible voices like Robert Samuelson of Newsweek, a fantastic writer on economics, actually think this might be a fight worth picking. The U.S. may have lost about 2.8 million jobs to China in the last decade. A trade war would be devastating in the short run but the long-term danger of a 20% trade disadvantage due to currency manipulation may be too damaging.

Some say we’re already in a currency war with China. The Federal Reserve has sharply increased the supply of dollars, thereby weakening their value. It makes our imports cheaper but it also hurts anybody with a savings account. It puts us at greater risk for inflation and it is one of the primary reasons gasoline is so expensive since oil is pegged to the dollar.

China is our 3rd largest importer, buying 104 billion dollars of our soybeans, aircraft, computer parts, and other products in 2011. Over the last decade, the trade deficit has actually narrowed significantly, from roughly 5.8:1 to about 3.9:1. As China’s economy grows it buys more and we are still a country that makes things. We are still the world’s top manufacturer. Also, cheap Chinese labor is not so cheap anymore. American manufacturing is actually starting to rebound a little. The minimum wage across China rose a whopping 22 percent in 2011 forcing factories that make things like sneakers and t-shirts to go to places like Bangladesh and Vietnam. And while China exports much it does, in fact, import more than it exports. China has a trade deficit?? Yes.

Also, some argue that the U.S. may be as much a culprit against free trade as China itself. Putting tariffs on China would invoke retaliation with the World Trade Organization and would expose all kinds of U.S. hypocrisy like all the tax breaks we give and our subsidies for private companies like Solyndra.

So should we bomb China? My heart says yes. I mean, if Sweden’s on the list, why not? But my head says, “Um….I don’t know. Stop bothering me. I have a headache. I’m going to bed”.