Sunday, June 21, 2020

WHICH BLACK LIVES MATTER?



“And I say we should not listen to those who say the voice of the people is the voice of God. For the riotousness of the crowd is always close to madness.”

Alcuin to Charlemagne.

Some years ago, I walked around the ancient city of Ephesus in Turkey. A spectacular site with marble streets and statues, I stood in the great amphitheater and pondered something: In Acts 19, Demetrius, a silversmith who made his living fashioning idols, incited a mob. Angry over the dishonoring of his beloved goddess and the prospect of losing income from fewer tchotchke sales, he led the chant, “Great is Artemis of the Ephesians!” for hours. “Soon the whole city was in an uproar,” v 29. They seized two of Paul’s companions intending to lynch them. The mob dispersed when a speaker noted they were about to be charged with rioting. Allegations of Roman racism would not have prevented their massacre. I thought to myself how odd this ancient scene was. Here in the 21st century, people seem more reasonable and calm. And then last week, blocks from my home, banks were burned and stores were looted. And, in my opinion, it was all for a lie. 





Most have seen the video of the white knee on the black neck. If you are a decent person, it is painful to watch. The last straw in a seeming parade of incidents, it proved to many that the police and White Amerikka are violently, irredeemably, racist. Activists proclaim black genocide. It simply is not true. Racism, that stubborn vestige of human nature, clings to us like toilet paper from an airport bathroom. Yet, its perceived power is false. Nothing is more taboo in America.

How can so many can be so wrong?

In 1997, CNN and Time conducted a poll that asked white and black teens “Is racism a major problem in America?” Both groups said, "yes." But when black teens were asked about racism in their own lives, 89% percent said racism was a "small problem" or "not a problem at all". Nearly twice as many black teens than whites called "failure to take advantage of available opportunities" a big problem in their lives.

According to a 2014 Census Bureau study, blacks are almost twice as likely to live in poverty as all races combined, 27% vs. 15.5%. What can explain this? Marriage. Conservatives have always argued the preeminence of family and the data proves it. 71% of all black children are raised by single mothers. The poverty rate for black married couples with children is only 10.8% but skyrockets to 46.1% for single mothers. The rate for all races is very similar: 8.2% poverty for married couples and 37% for single mothers with children. The drastic difference in poverty rates is almost wholly explained by family status.


One of the least racist countries on earth according to the Washington Post, less than 5% of respondents in America say they would be bothered if a neighbor of a different race moved next door. Jonah Goldberg writes, “By any measure America has become astoundingly less racist…In 1958, according to the Brookings Institution, 44% of whites said they’d leave if a black family moved in next door. In 1998, only 1% did. In 1990, according to the Pew Research Center, 63% of non-blacks expressed dismay at the prospect of a close relative marrying a black person. By 2016, that number had dropped to 14%. In 1967, only 3% of Americans married outside their race or ethnicity. Today, nearly one-fifth do.” Fakehatecrimes.org has 390 entries. If racism was so ubiquitous, why would anyone fabricate examples? Wouldn’t they be everywhere? Did German Jews paint swastikas on their own shops? No. The Nazis did that for them.

Policy prescriptions behind the  “Defund the Police” movement range from popular reforms to… “Yes, We Mean Literally ‘Abolish the Police’”. In 2014, after the Michael Brown incident, there was a notable uptick of violent crime in many cities. Widely studied, most researchers believe the “Ferguson Effect”, a reduction in community policing and 911 calls due to mistrust, were a direct cause of the increased violence. In Baltimore, where police presence was reduced after the Freddie Gray riots, murders skyrocketed. Residents blamed it directly on the lack of police patrols. Charles Barkley asks a relevant question:




Police shootings of blacks are down 75% since 1971. The Washington Post has kept statistics on fatal police shootings since 2015. Their summary, while noting the vast majority of the dead were armed, focuses heavily on racial disparity. When you dig into the data, however, you find this: Last year, out of 1001 fatalities, only 44 were unarmed. Of those, 10 were black. When you look at each individual case, only a handful were questionable shootings. Six were officers being assaulted. Two were unarmed men who threatened officers or claimed to have guns, and two, despite officers’ claim of seeing weapons which were later found, resulted in police being prosecuted. In a nation of 330 million, 43 million of whom are black, you have only 10 killed by police without a weapon. Only a couple of those, after intense investigations, were found to be inappropriate.

Black Harvard Professor Roland G. Fryer Jr. published a study showing blacks were about 18% more likely to be manhandled by cops but actually less likely to be shot. Given the much higher crime rate of blacks, the study shows blacks may be somewhat treated with deference. “It is the most surprising result of my career,” said Fryer. A recent study out of Washington State University found similar results.

U.S. Civil Rights Commissioner Peter Kirsanow notes:  

·         Black males, 6 percent of the U.S. population, are responsible for 42% of cop killings in the last decade.
·         In 2015, a cop was 18.5 times more likely to be killed by a black male than an unarmed black male was likely to be killed by a cop.
·         Whites commit 59% and blacks commit 37.5% of violent crimes (murder, manslaughter, rape, robbery, aggravated assault).
·         Blacks are approximately 6.8 times more likely than whites to be arrested for murder.

Kirsanow quoted Heather Mac Donald, author of “The War on Cops”:
Between 2012 and 2015, blacks committed 85.5% of all black-white interracial violent victimizations (excluding interracial homicide, which is also disproportionately black-on-white). That works out to 540,360 felonious assaults on whites. Whites committed 14.4% of all interracial violent victimizations, or 91,470 felonious assaults on blacks.

Race of victim
Total
Race of offender
Sex of offender
Ethnicity of offender
White
Black or
African
American
Other1
Unknown
Male
Female
Unknown
Hispanic
or Latino
Not
Hispanic
or Latino
Unknown
White
3,315
2,677
514
61
63
2,914
383
18
803
1,476
1,036
Black or African American
2,925
234
2,600
17
74
2,603
291
31
83
1,878
964
Other race1
220
54
39
122
5
196
22
2
19
132
69
Unknown race
110
46
24
7
33
100
9
1
18
40
52


Blacks are three times more likely to be murdered than whites. Chicago alone had 800 murders in 2016, dropping to 510 in 2019. For every unarmed black person killed by police, there are approximately 300 black murder victims, 89% of whom were murdered by other blacks. Just this weekend in Chicago, 102 people were shot and 14 killed including a 13 and a  three year old boy. Who cares about these black victims? No, really. Who cares about them?

 Dead child Mekhi James, 3. 

Everything is about narrative. Cops are great. Cops are bad. Blacks are innocent victims. Blacks deserve what they get. The George Floyd narrative, like Freddy Gray, Trayvon Martin, Rayshard Brooks, and many others, is not so clean. Floyd had meth and synthetic heroin in his system and tested positive for Covid-19. Officer Chauvin had multiple complaints of excessive force. Stopping this is hard. Politicians have attempted to reform police departments many times. What usually happens? If you want your blood to boil, read this piece about reform attempts destroyed by police union libel, slander, and blackmail. If you want effective reforms both sides can support, don’t defund cops, take on their unions.

With all the outrage over racism, life has been getting better for blacks in nearly all areas, thanks in large part to pre-Covid record low unemployment and poverty for blacks but also due to a decades-long reduction in crime, increasing levels of education and continually improving attitudes about race. Sadly, some of this is starting to reverse. Yet, the outrage does not match reality.

 And what is the wreckage that restless rioters have wrought?  Too early for accurate estimates, the Claims Journal fears insured property damage may reach “catastrophe level.” 750 officers were injured in the first week of June alone. Murders are up 56% in Chicago and 100% in New York City in the last 28 days. As of 6/10/20, at least 12 police officers were shot, two of them murdered, including this guy…



...retired St. Louis police captain David Dorn, shot dead while trying to keep a pawn shop from being looted. Do black lives matter? If so, which ones? 

Wednesday, May 6, 2020

DID TRUMP SCREW UP THE CORONA VIRUS RESPONSE PART II: ANOTHER RESPONSE TO MY FRIEND BJORN JÜRGEN FLÜRGEN


Trump, Trump, Trump. Trumptrumptrumptrumptrump. Stop obsessing and you will be happier.



I don’t want to defend Trump; I want to defend the truth, which is simply that he’s not as bad as he’s portrayed. It’s not a sexy argument, I know. Trump is one man, an abrasive one at that, but the media and Trump-hating elites is a whole class of people. Their hate, corruption and dishonesty is far more damaging to the country than Trump. IMHO.



Here is a lesson we should learn: The President matters less than he (or she or ze or zir) seems. Presidents oversee a vast bureaucracy. It is a fact that the president rarely has a clue what the bureaucrats are doing. It’s why Trump refers to the Deep State constantly. You argued Trump is responsible for all the death because he’s the leader and the buck stops with him. That’s a nice sentiment and a useful one to guard against leaders being unaccountable. In reality, it’s ludicrous. Human beings control what they can control. Leaders set tone, enforce standards, choose goals, and create organizational culture, but they don’t have mind control over their subordinates.  Trump dismantled the NSA pandemic team and turned down WHO testing kits in favor of our own that didn’t work as well? Well, for one, conservatives are always trying to reduce the size of government. If 90% of the time, it’s a good idea, the 10% of the time it backfires, people like you scream about blood on our hands. Bigger government fixes problems? Ok. If you want to have this debate, I can bring my 237 volume “Encyclopedia of Government Waste and Idiocy” as exhibit A. And I’m certain somebody somewhere has quantified how many deaths have been the direct cause of bureaucratic ineptitude.



You suggested Trump’s travel ban was porous, more a press release than lock down. Fine. But what you are arguing is that this “racist” and “reactionary” travel ban, which came only one day after W.H.O. declared the international crisis and with only six Covid cases in the, should have been tougher and earlier. Should Trump have stranded Americans overseas? Can you imagine the weeping and gnashing of teeth?



People like you and I, sitting in our living rooms imbibing propaganda formerly known as news, simply cannot know whether Trump’s handling has been incompetent. We are not privy to the myriad of meetings and advice he gets. After this mess is over, when Dr. Fauci and the rest retire and write their books and when the responses to those books come out, then we will know. What we do know is that he has supposedly followed most of the scientific advice he’s gotten. Trump holds daily briefings and, right beside him are the government’s top scientists who sometimes correct his verbal bumbling, artfully, in real time. Are those the actions of a Macchiavellian tyrant?



Hatred has discombobulated the Trump haters so much that none can treat him or, more importantly, the truth, fairly. Greg Gutfield said the other day that if Trump cured cancer, the headline would be “Trump Cures Cancer, a Common Affliction of White Supremacists.” And yes, in some circles, the headline would be “Trump Cures Cancer: Is he God?” Sadly, the response to Covid-19 is politicized to the point of endangering society. Protecting the narrative is everything. My point is not to defend Trump, but to argue that the truth has been bashed to the point of unrecognizability. You want this to be about science only? Fine. A few questions for you:



Was it science that…



1.       Closed beaches and isolated horse trails when 90% or so of infections come from a person’s home and not outdoors?

2.       Shut down rural counties with few infections, treating them the same as extremely dense population centers?

3.       Caused police to issue fines for people sitting in their cars listening to church services on their radios?

4.       Caused American doctors to use Hydroxychloroquine at far lower rates than international doctors, who said it was the most effective drug?  Or was it because dirtbag partisans called it “snake oil”? Science now says it helps people in early stages and not in late stages.

5.       Caused W.H.O. to say Covid-19 could not be transmitted human to human as late as January 14th or did they blindly promote Chinese propaganda?

6.       Caused W.H.O. to not publicize Taiwan’s warnings on 12/31/19 that the virus spread from human to humans?

7.       Caused W.H.O. and CDC to tell us wearing masks was pointless? “Seriously people- STOP BUYING MASKS!” Surgeon General Adams wrote on Twitter. “They are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching #Coronavirus…” That was all a lie.

8.       Causes the W.H.O. to now say that Sweden’s strategy of not shutting down whole economies is a potential model for the rest of the world? Maybe. If so, why such certainty about the opposite before?

9.       That caused New York state to order care facilities to take back Covid patients when possibly 50% of all Covid deaths are in nursing homes or long-term care facilities?

·   25% of NY state deaths were in nursing homes/LCF’s.

·   70% of PA deaths are in nursing homes/LCF’s.

10.   That caused governors to shut down schools when there have been a grand total of 3 Covid deaths of children in the country?

11.   That caused the whole country to shut down when…

·         Almost ¾ of the deaths are people over 65 and 95% over 45.

·         75% of total deaths had or possibly had underlying conditions.

·         80% of total deaths were over 65 AND had or possibly had underlying conditions.

Wouldn’t it be better to just quarantine those over 60? Why aren’t states sending inspectors to nursing homes daily? Why are they forcing nursing homes to take back Corona patients? Why isn’t literally every nursing home employee and patient tested?


Age of Coronavirus Deaths

Data by New York City Health as of April 14:

AGE
Number of Deaths
Share of deaths
With underlying conditions
Without underlying conditions
Unknown if with underlying cond.
Share of deaths
of unknown + w/o cond.
0 - 17 years old
3
0.04%
3
0
0
0%
18 - 44 years old
309
4.5%
244
25
40
1.0%
45 - 64 years old
1,581
23.1%
1,343
59
179
3.5%
65 - 74 years old
1,683
24.6%
1,272
26
385
6.0%
75+ years old
3,263
47.7%
2,289
27
947
14.2%
TOTAL
6,839
100%
5,151
137
1,551
24.68%





YAY SCIENCE!



I’ve already discussed that scientists’ opinions are as valuable as my belly button lint.  But even with actual science, 50% of all peer-reviewed science articles can’t be replicated. 70% of all scientists have tried to replicate experiments and failed. “Many scholars agree that the main reason for the spread of fake news in scientific journals is the tremendous pressure in the academic system to publish in high-impact journals.” “14% of scientists claim to know a scientist who has fabricated entire datasets, and 72% say they know one who has indulged in other questionable research practices such as dropping selected data points to sharpen their results.” We all love science with its antibiotics and internet and stuff, but maybe science lovers should have SOME GOD DANG HUMILITY!



As of 4/21/20, Trump did the following:



1.       Instituted travel ban.

2.       Temporarily shut down some forms of immigration.

3.       Modified many federal regulations to speed up delivery/manufacture of PPE.

4.        Distributed 57.4 million N95 masks, 85.3 million surgical masks, 6.4 million face shields, 12.3 million surgical gowns, 638 million gloves, and 10,998 ventilators.

5.       Ordered American company 3M to sell masks to Americans rather than foreign nations.

6.       Ordered GM to manufacture ventilators through the Defense Production Act.

7.       America has tested 4.3 million samples, more than all other countries combined.

8.       Deployed 5,528 military personnel to hospitals and other facilities.

9.        Called, 28,700 National Guard to duty.

10.   Established “Project Airbridge”, a public/private partnership to pick up and deliver crucial supplies.



Could Trump have done better? Maybe. But clearly he did some stuff. Could he have been less of a clown? Unquestionably. Yet, those who are saying ridiculous things like he has blood on his hands are not looking for the truth. For the haters, I think Trump’s greatest crime is that he embarrasses us. Yet, idiot or not, he usually listens to his people and he’s been rather successful overall. And that is good leadership. You surround yourself with people smarter than you, with contrary opinions, and you make choices unapologetically. And that is largely what he has done.


Friday, April 17, 2020

DID TRUMP SCREW UP THE CORONA VIRUS RESPONSE?: A RESPONSE TO MY FRIEND BJORN JÜRGEN FLÜRGEN


OK. I read the Atlantic piece from former GW Bush speechwriter David Frum. It reads like a scorned wife’s affidavit for divorce court, filled with obsessive detail and an ‘oh-so-certain-ness’ that the arguments are air tight and damning. Please.



Frum scorches Trump for not reacting earlier in January. Here’s Nancy Pelosi on February 24th strolling around Chinatown in San Francisco, telling everybody to come and buy stuff because “we’re on top of it.” On March 4, Dr. Sanjay Gupta and Anderson Cooper said Corona was less dangerous than the flu. When Trump issued his travel ban from China, there were only six confirmed cases in the U.S. SIX. Clearly, a lot people didn’t know much early on. As data became available, it changed opinions.



Conservatives were skeptical at first because we’re used to leftist hysteria about health and environmental issues (vaccines, genetically modified food, global warming, overpopulation, dead polar bears, etc.) Our bias probably caused us, (me) to underreact for a while. Not anymore. But now, conservatives are pushing to reopen the economy because, while the left takes wealth for granted, conservatives believe a good economy requires good policy. The longer the quarantine, the more likely we trigger a depression. Economic harm causes real harm: suicides, alcoholism, domestic violence, child abuse, etc. We will not know for a while, may never know, whether anybody’s actions were the right ones. We should be somewhat generous in judging people’s motives. I think both liberals and conservatives are doing their best and are genuinely scared of the consequences, just different ones.



Frum criticized Trump for bureaucratic problems like the CDC sending out defective testing kits. NEWSFLASH: Conservatives love talking about bureaucratic ineptitude. The leftist argument is always that more money will make bureaucracy work. Sure. One thing Frum mentioned might be legitimate, however, the fact that states were in bidding wars for ventilators and Trump should’ve used his emergency powers to end this. Maybe. It’s always more complicated but this is legitimate to debate.



Frum, typing furiously in a miniskirt and red heels, proved he’s a prostitute when he argued that the powerful economy under Trump was Obama’s. After a historic drop, the economy was teed up to rocket back to good times. Obama deployed liberal policies and got the most anemic recovery in history. Trump channeled Milton Friedman (mostly) and, as conservatives would predict, the economy boomed. An alleged conservative, Frum used weak Democratic talking points to counter the best modern case for long-standing conservative dogma. What a shill. The lesson? Trump Derangement Syndrome kills brain cells. And honesty.



Trump is slimy. He is also a trolling savant, and the press’ Pavlovian, epileptic fits show they are eager to wallow in the same filth. They are reactive and dishonest. Lounging on the weekends in their Harvard sweat shirts, they are mediocrities.



FromJonah Goldberg: Lots of people I know have convinced themselves to play the Trump game—pro and anti—because it is so vitally important to be “relevant.” Some of the folks who’ve ridden the Red vs. Blue horse for so long have cut a groove in the earth so deep that it’s now a trench they can’t climb out of…They have to blame the media or Trump for everything, reading from a script that no longer fits the plot or the actors on the stage. And one of the funny things about trenches is that, when you’re in one, it becomes all the easier for people to see over your head.


Saturday, January 18, 2020

LETTER TO MY FRIEND KIRK VAN HOSENPFEFFER




or 

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Trump.



Dear Kirk,



After your last tirade over text, I decided I must destroy you. Well, not you, just your belief system. You’re a good guy.



In “The Coddling of the American Mind”, liberals Jonathan Haidt and Greg Lukianoff present three leftist lies taking hold of the younger generation:


1.       What doesn’t kill you makes you weaker.

2.       Always trust your feelings.

3.       Life is a battle between good and evil people.



The lies are nefarious enough as untruths but the real problem is their effect on the mind. The science says these beliefs cause anxiety, depression and resentment. They also tear us apart.



The core difference between right and left is not racism or greed but beliefs about the nature of man. The left believes man is good from birth. Or maybe with tweakable software waiting for the right programmer. Pain is an unnatural state caused by poor education, insufficient resources or racism or whatever. It’s not you; it’s the world. We could totally fix things, of course, if not for conservative obstructionism. But one man’s good idea is another man’s crazy scheme. Conservatives ask, “Yeah, but will it work?” We believe in progress, too. Life has gotten immeasurably better in the last few centuries (Thanks to OUR principles. You’re welcome.) But there are no “hacks” to life, no solutions, only tradeoffs. Plans that rely on society becoming more kind or selfless? Please. If you don’t believe humanity is flawed and selfish, you are doomed to forever watch the news in a state of confusion.




WHAT DOESN’T KILL YOU MAKES YOU WEAKER



This belief in fragility, the need for young minds to be protected from bad ideas, is not universal on the left but the underlying principle is that human happiness rests on the right experiences, the right structures, the right environment. If everything aligns, if a child is free from material want, indoctrinated into the ways of peace and brotherly love, that child is destined for happiness. The unintended consequences of this “safetyism”, however, are feelings of weakness, lack of control and disempowerment. Against it stands the whole of human history and the obvious point that some of the most wealthy and advantaged have also been the most miserable.



Some of the greatest humans in history have had deeply troubled pasts. Abraham Lincoln’s mother died. His father beat and berated him and Lincoln was so depressed at times, he was on suicide watch. Winston Churchill’s father was cold, harsh and abusive. In contrast, Hitler had a normal childhood, was a vegetarian, treated his mistress, subordinates and dog with kindness and respect. As the body needs exercise and stress, so does the human will and spirit. All are born with burdens. Happiness rests on overcoming them and choosing goodness.


Hitler’s dog Blondi: “I know, but he was a good master!”




ALWAYS TRUST YOUR FEELINGS



T.H. Huxley said, “A man’s worst problems begin when he is able to do as he likes.” An atheist, he agreed with the Christian notion of universal depravity. The anti-religious left mocks the religious and claims the mantle of reason but when you embrace notions of inherent goodness, you must also believe that feelings within are mostly trustworthy. Yet, think of people who follow not a code but their desires, who satiate every whim and act on every feeling. Are they good and decent people? More likely they are monsters. The screaming toddler acts on feeling. The man has learned to master his.



Haidt, in a previous book called “The Righteous Mind: Why Good People Disagree on Politics and Religion”, describes research showing humans are inherently bad at reason. He describes the mind as an elephant and a rider. The elephant (subconscious mind or worldview) goes where it chooses. The rider’s job (the intellect) is to come up with post hoc reasoning for the elephant’s movements. Social science does not say man cannot reason but it does say objectivity is remarkably uncommon. Without considerable effort, the stew of biases, painful experiences and fears shape our beliefs. Feelings are not good guides for life. We would do well to examine where they have led us astray.



The conservative solution is to embrace reason as superior to emotion but also to tame our wild minds with the bridle and bit of doctrine and tradition. The answer is to choose what is tried and true, some proven system that has worked over time. Feelings betray us. Reason fails us. Look to the future, yes, but respect the past. Imperfect as this is, there is no other way. 




"TRADITIOOOOOOOOON, TRADITION!"


LIFE IS A BATTLE BETWEEN GOOD AND EVIL PEOPLE



Karl Marx’s contribution to the modern left is the idea that the classes are and should be at war. Conservatives talk about growing the economic pie for everyone. Marx says, “STOP EATING ALL THE FRICKIN’ PIE!” Rigged from the start, there is no game everybody can win, only winners and losers. What puzzles Omnipotentblog is that, after a century of failure, anyone is still attracted to socialism. It has been tried on all continents among all races, in states both industrialized and agrarian, totalitarian and free, in countries mountainous, tropical, and flat, in countries hot and cold. It has failed every time. Miserably. “What about Denmark? Or Sweden?” Listen to Denmark’s president scold Bernie Sanders, saying Denmark is most certainly not socialist. 



In the 60’s, thinkers like Herbert Marcuse argued that if tolerance for opposing ideas was not abandoned, society would never progress. Marcuse sowed the seeds of our current fractiousness because he understood the leftist vision could never transpire democratically. How could justice ever be realized except through imposition? Interests are too entrenched. Martin Luther King Jr. was successful because he thrust in America’s face the hypocritical rejection of our own values. We had only to live up to what we already believed. The current thinking on race is the opposite of King’s spirit of common humanity. Ta-Nehisi Coates argues that whites have the irredeemable stain of original sin. There is no reconciliation, only rectification. Can this ever work? Can the races truly never live as friends and equals until the darker-skinned get their turn at cracking the whip? Intersectionality forces on us a lens of conflict, revenge over peace, hate over love. One is victim. The other is victimizer. No others. Aren’t people more complicated than this? These philosophies allow no room for good white people or bad people of color. Isn’t that the very definition of racism and bigotry, to judge men not by actions but by accidents of birth? Ask yourself another question: If it’s good for people of color to fashion identities primarily from race, why wouldn’t whites do the same? What would be the likely result of a white racial awakening?



Kirk, think of the barrage of commentary you imbibe on MSNBC. Try this: Every time you hear “black,” substitute it for “white”, “Republican” for “Democrat.” If you are honest, you will see an ideology of hate, a fear that only through tearing opponents down, can they achieve success. Can you not see that it is the most cynical manipulation by people who think you are stupid? The fact they most certainly believe at least some of their own preaching makes it no less propagandistic.



In my next piece, I’m going to show you America is not the bastion of racism you believe it is and conservatives are, by and large, decent people.